Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state casesPerMillion
##  1:                 New York          12,481
##  2:               New Jersey           9,603
##  3:            Massachusetts           5,524
##  4:                Louisiana           5,147
##  5:              Connecticut           5,038
##  6:             Rhode Island           4,442
##  7:     District of Columbia           3,957
##  8:                 Michigan           3,138
##  9:                 Delaware           2,606
## 10:             Pennsylvania           2,577
## 11:                 Illinois           2,395
## 12:                 Maryland           2,122
## 13:             South Dakota           1,848
## 14:                 Colorado           1,689
## 15:                  Indiana           1,665
## 16:                  Georgia           1,659
## 17:               Washington           1,550
## 18:              Mississippi           1,436
## 19:                  Vermont           1,301
## 20:                  Florida           1,224
## 21:                   Nevada           1,214
## 22:            New Hampshire           1,023
## 23:                Tennessee           1,002
## 24:                 Virginia           1,000
## 25:                  Alabama             999
## 26:                     Ohio             992
## 27:                     Utah             957
## 28:                     Iowa             923
## 29:                 Missouri             923
## 30:                    Idaho             884
## 31:               New Mexico             879
## 32:           South Carolina             850
## 33:               California             798
## 34:             North Dakota             767
## 35:                 Nebraska             761
## 36:                Wisconsin             746
## 37:                  Arizona             677
## 38:                    Texas             670
## 39:                 Kentucky             662
## 40:                 Oklahoma             656
## 41:                   Kansas             651
## 42:                    Maine             644
## 43:           North Carolina             619
## 44:                 Arkansas             590
## 45:                  Wyoming             540
## 46:            West Virginia             496
## 47:                   Oregon             452
## 48:                   Alaska             433
## 49:                Minnesota             417
## 50:                   Hawaii             405
## 51:                  Montana             405
## 52:              Puerto Rico             379
## 53:           American Samoa            <NA>
## 54:                     Guam            <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands            <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands            <NA>
##                        state casesPerMillion

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state casesNewPerMillion
##  1:               New Jersey                374
##  2:                 New York                351
##  3:            Massachusetts                285
##  4:             Rhode Island                273
##  5:     District of Columbia                209
##  6:              Connecticut                194
##  7:                 Delaware                158
##  8:             South Dakota                122
##  9:                 Illinois                121
## 10:             Pennsylvania                121
## 11:                 Maryland                112
## 12:                Louisiana                100
## 13:                     Ohio                 90
## 14:             North Dakota                 83
## 15:                  Indiana                 82
## 16:                     Iowa                 81
## 17:                 Michigan                 74
## 18:              Mississippi                 72
## 19:                 Nebraska                 65
## 20:                 Virginia                 64
## 21:                  Georgia                 62
## 22:                 Colorado                 61
## 23:                  Florida                 46
## 24:                   Nevada                 45
## 25:            New Hampshire                 44
## 26:                     Utah                 40
## 27:                 Kentucky                 39
## 28:               New Mexico                 39
## 29:                Tennessee                 36
## 30:                   Kansas                 34
## 31:                  Alabama                 33
## 32:           North Carolina                 32
## 33:                  Arizona                 31
## 34:                 Missouri                 30
## 35:               California                 28
## 36:           South Carolina                 28
## 37:                    Texas                 28
## 38:               Washington                 28
## 39:            West Virginia                 28
## 40:                Minnesota                 26
## 41:                Wisconsin                 26
## 42:                  Vermont                 23
## 43:                 Oklahoma                 20
## 44:                 Arkansas                 17
## 45:                    Maine                 17
## 46:              Puerto Rico                 17
## 47:                   Oregon                 13
## 48:                   Hawaii                  9
## 49:                    Idaho                  9
## 50:                  Wyoming                  9
## 51:                   Alaska                  8
## 52:                  Montana                  5
## 53:           American Samoa               <NA>
## 54:                     Guam               <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands               <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands               <NA>
##                        state casesNewPerMillion

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsPerMillion
##  1:                 New York              712
##  2:               New Jersey              473
##  3:              Connecticut              316
##  4:                Louisiana              278
##  5:            Massachusetts              247
##  6:                 Michigan              239
##  7:             Rhode Island              141
##  8:     District of Columbia              136
##  9:                 Illinois              102
## 10:             Pennsylvania              100
## 11:                  Indiana               83
## 12:               Washington               83
## 13:                 Maryland               80
## 14:                 Colorado               73
## 15:                 Delaware               68
## 16:                  Georgia               64
## 17:                  Vermont               59
## 18:              Mississippi               53
## 19:                   Nevada               51
## 20:                     Ohio               40
## 21:                Wisconsin               38
## 22:                  Florida               35
## 23:                 Oklahoma               35
## 24:                 Kentucky               33
## 25:                  Alabama               32
## 26:                   Kansas               32
## 27:                 Virginia               32
## 28:                 Missouri               31
## 29:            New Hampshire               30
## 30:               California               29
## 31:               New Mexico               26
## 32:                  Arizona               25
## 33:                    Idaho               25
## 34:                    Maine               25
## 35:                     Iowa               23
## 36:                Minnesota               23
## 37:           South Carolina               23
## 38:                Tennessee               22
## 39:           North Carolina               17
## 40:                   Oregon               17
## 41:                    Texas               17
## 42:                 Nebraska               14
## 43:             North Dakota               13
## 44:                 Arkansas               12
## 45:              Puerto Rico               12
## 46:            West Virginia               11
## 47:                   Alaska                9
## 48:                  Montana                9
## 49:                     Utah                8
## 50:                   Hawaii                7
## 51:             South Dakota                7
## 52:                  Wyoming                3
## 53:           American Samoa             <NA>
## 54:                     Guam             <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands             <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands             <NA>
##                        state deathsPerMillion

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsNewPerMillion
##  1:                 New York                  28
##  2:               New Jersey                  25
##  3:            Massachusetts                  22
##  4:              Connecticut                  14
##  5:             Rhode Island                  14
##  6:                Louisiana                  10
##  7:             Pennsylvania                  10
##  8:                 Michigan                   9
##  9:     District of Columbia                   7
## 10:                 Delaware                   5
## 11:                 Illinois                   5
## 12:                 Maryland                   5
## 13:                  Indiana                   4
## 14:              Mississippi                   3
## 15:                 Colorado                   2
## 16:                  Georgia                   2
## 17:                Minnesota                   2
## 18:                     Ohio                   2
## 19:                 Virginia                   2
## 20:               Washington                   2
## 21:                  Alabama                   1
## 22:                  Arizona                   1
## 23:               California                   1
## 24:                  Florida                   1
## 25:                     Iowa                   1
## 26:                   Kansas                   1
## 27:                 Kentucky                   1
## 28:                    Maine                   1
## 29:                 Missouri                   1
## 30:                   Nevada                   1
## 31:            New Hampshire                   1
## 32:               New Mexico                   1
## 33:           North Carolina                   1
## 34:                  Vermont                   1
## 35:            West Virginia                   1
## 36:                Wisconsin                   1
## 37:                   Alaska                   0
## 38:                 Arkansas                   0
## 39:                   Hawaii                   0
## 40:                    Idaho                   0
## 41:                  Montana                   0
## 42:                 Nebraska                   0
## 43:             North Dakota                   0
## 44:                 Oklahoma                   0
## 45:                   Oregon                   0
## 46:           South Carolina                   0
## 47:             South Dakota                   0
## 48:                Tennessee                   0
## 49:                    Texas                   0
## 50:                     Utah                   0
## 51:                  Wyoming                   0
## 52:              Puerto Rico                  -1
## 53:           American Samoa                <NA>
## 54:                     Guam                <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands                <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands                <NA>
##                        state deathsNewPerMillion

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##          county          state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:    New York       New York          82,548          1         99
##  2:    Rockland       New York          28,743          2         99
##  3:      Marion           Ohio          28,175          3         99
##  4: Westchester       New York          24,602          4         99
##  5:      Nassau       New York          22,118          5         99
##  6:    Davidson      Tennessee           2,523        187         94
##  7:    Richland South Carolina           1,568        382         87
##  8:      Pierce     Washington           1,293        480         84
##  9:        York South Carolina             555       1154         63
## 10:      Orange     California             515       1234         60

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##       county          state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1: New York       New York            5,961          1         99
##  2: Randolph        Georgia            1,918          2         99
##  3:  Terrell        Georgia            1,641          3         99
##  4:   Nassau       New York            1,162          4         99
##  5: Mitchell        Georgia            1,052          5         99
##  6:   Pierce     Washington               35        661         78
##  7: Richland South Carolina               34        683         78
##  8: Davidson      Tennessee               29        758         75
##  9:     York South Carolina               11       1068         66
## 10:   Orange     California               10       1079         65

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons