Covid Report for Family
Last updated on April 20, 2020 to include data from the previous day
Background
Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020
- This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
- The table of contents above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
- Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
- If you open on your phone, I don’t believe the tabs will work, so you’ll just see the page as one long, continuous document.
- More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.
Growth rates
Heat maps
- The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
- The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
- The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
- The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
- You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
- You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.
Case growth rates
- This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
- There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
- Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
- For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
U.S.
Our states
Death growth rates
- This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
- There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
- Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
- For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
U.S.
Our states
By population rankings
This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.
States
- This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
- For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
- We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.
Total confirmed cases
Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
## state casesPerMillion
## 1: New York 12,481
## 2: New Jersey 9,603
## 3: Massachusetts 5,524
## 4: Louisiana 5,147
## 5: Connecticut 5,038
## 6: Rhode Island 4,442
## 7: District of Columbia 3,957
## 8: Michigan 3,138
## 9: Delaware 2,606
## 10: Pennsylvania 2,577
## 11: Illinois 2,395
## 12: Maryland 2,122
## 13: South Dakota 1,848
## 14: Colorado 1,689
## 15: Indiana 1,665
## 16: Georgia 1,659
## 17: Washington 1,550
## 18: Mississippi 1,436
## 19: Vermont 1,301
## 20: Florida 1,224
## 21: Nevada 1,214
## 22: New Hampshire 1,023
## 23: Tennessee 1,002
## 24: Virginia 1,000
## 25: Alabama 999
## 26: Ohio 992
## 27: Utah 957
## 28: Iowa 923
## 29: Missouri 923
## 30: Idaho 884
## 31: New Mexico 879
## 32: South Carolina 850
## 33: California 798
## 34: North Dakota 767
## 35: Nebraska 761
## 36: Wisconsin 746
## 37: Arizona 677
## 38: Texas 670
## 39: Kentucky 662
## 40: Oklahoma 656
## 41: Kansas 651
## 42: Maine 644
## 43: North Carolina 619
## 44: Arkansas 590
## 45: Wyoming 540
## 46: West Virginia 496
## 47: Oregon 452
## 48: Alaska 433
## 49: Minnesota 417
## 50: Hawaii 405
## 51: Montana 405
## 52: Puerto Rico 379
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesPerMillion
New confirmed cases
Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state casesNewPerMillion
## 1: New Jersey 374
## 2: New York 351
## 3: Massachusetts 285
## 4: Rhode Island 273
## 5: District of Columbia 209
## 6: Connecticut 194
## 7: Delaware 158
## 8: South Dakota 122
## 9: Illinois 121
## 10: Pennsylvania 121
## 11: Maryland 112
## 12: Louisiana 100
## 13: Ohio 90
## 14: North Dakota 83
## 15: Indiana 82
## 16: Iowa 81
## 17: Michigan 74
## 18: Mississippi 72
## 19: Nebraska 65
## 20: Virginia 64
## 21: Georgia 62
## 22: Colorado 61
## 23: Florida 46
## 24: Nevada 45
## 25: New Hampshire 44
## 26: Utah 40
## 27: Kentucky 39
## 28: New Mexico 39
## 29: Tennessee 36
## 30: Kansas 34
## 31: Alabama 33
## 32: North Carolina 32
## 33: Arizona 31
## 34: Missouri 30
## 35: California 28
## 36: South Carolina 28
## 37: Texas 28
## 38: Washington 28
## 39: West Virginia 28
## 40: Minnesota 26
## 41: Wisconsin 26
## 42: Vermont 23
## 43: Oklahoma 20
## 44: Arkansas 17
## 45: Maine 17
## 46: Puerto Rico 17
## 47: Oregon 13
## 48: Hawaii 9
## 49: Idaho 9
## 50: Wyoming 9
## 51: Alaska 8
## 52: Montana 5
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesNewPerMillion
Total deaths
Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
## state deathsPerMillion
## 1: New York 712
## 2: New Jersey 473
## 3: Connecticut 316
## 4: Louisiana 278
## 5: Massachusetts 247
## 6: Michigan 239
## 7: Rhode Island 141
## 8: District of Columbia 136
## 9: Illinois 102
## 10: Pennsylvania 100
## 11: Indiana 83
## 12: Washington 83
## 13: Maryland 80
## 14: Colorado 73
## 15: Delaware 68
## 16: Georgia 64
## 17: Vermont 59
## 18: Mississippi 53
## 19: Nevada 51
## 20: Ohio 40
## 21: Wisconsin 38
## 22: Florida 35
## 23: Oklahoma 35
## 24: Kentucky 33
## 25: Alabama 32
## 26: Kansas 32
## 27: Virginia 32
## 28: Missouri 31
## 29: New Hampshire 30
## 30: California 29
## 31: New Mexico 26
## 32: Arizona 25
## 33: Idaho 25
## 34: Maine 25
## 35: Iowa 23
## 36: Minnesota 23
## 37: South Carolina 23
## 38: Tennessee 22
## 39: North Carolina 17
## 40: Oregon 17
## 41: Texas 17
## 42: Nebraska 14
## 43: North Dakota 13
## 44: Arkansas 12
## 45: Puerto Rico 12
## 46: West Virginia 11
## 47: Alaska 9
## 48: Montana 9
## 49: Utah 8
## 50: Hawaii 7
## 51: South Dakota 7
## 52: Wyoming 3
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsPerMillion
New deaths
Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state deathsNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 28
## 2: New Jersey 25
## 3: Massachusetts 22
## 4: Connecticut 14
## 5: Rhode Island 14
## 6: Louisiana 10
## 7: Pennsylvania 10
## 8: Michigan 9
## 9: District of Columbia 7
## 10: Delaware 5
## 11: Illinois 5
## 12: Maryland 5
## 13: Indiana 4
## 14: Mississippi 3
## 15: Colorado 2
## 16: Georgia 2
## 17: Minnesota 2
## 18: Ohio 2
## 19: Virginia 2
## 20: Washington 2
## 21: Alabama 1
## 22: Arizona 1
## 23: California 1
## 24: Florida 1
## 25: Iowa 1
## 26: Kansas 1
## 27: Kentucky 1
## 28: Maine 1
## 29: Missouri 1
## 30: Nevada 1
## 31: New Hampshire 1
## 32: New Mexico 1
## 33: North Carolina 1
## 34: Vermont 1
## 35: West Virginia 1
## 36: Wisconsin 1
## 37: Alaska 0
## 38: Arkansas 0
## 39: Hawaii 0
## 40: Idaho 0
## 41: Montana 0
## 42: Nebraska 0
## 43: North Dakota 0
## 44: Oklahoma 0
## 45: Oregon 0
## 46: South Carolina 0
## 47: South Dakota 0
## 48: Tennessee 0
## 49: Texas 0
## 50: Utah 0
## 51: Wyoming 0
## 52: Puerto Rico -1
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsNewPerMillion
Counties
- This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
- Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
- In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.
Confirmed cases
Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 82,548 1 99
## 2: Rockland New York 28,743 2 99
## 3: Marion Ohio 28,175 3 99
## 4: Westchester New York 24,602 4 99
## 5: Nassau New York 22,118 5 99
## 6: Davidson Tennessee 2,523 187 94
## 7: Richland South Carolina 1,568 382 87
## 8: Pierce Washington 1,293 480 84
## 9: York South Carolina 555 1154 63
## 10: Orange California 515 1234 60Our county percentiles over time 
Deaths
Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 5,961 1 99
## 2: Randolph Georgia 1,918 2 99
## 3: Terrell Georgia 1,641 3 99
## 4: Nassau New York 1,162 4 99
## 5: Mitchell Georgia 1,052 5 99
## 6: Pierce Washington 35 661 78
## 7: Richland South Carolina 34 683 78
## 8: Davidson Tennessee 29 758 75
## 9: York South Carolina 11 1068 66
## 10: Orange California 10 1079 65Our county percentiles over time 
Raw counts
- This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
- Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
- New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
- For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new cases, to help better visualize the peak.
- Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
- New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
- For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new deaths, to help better visualize the peak.
Total confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Total deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Stay-at-home comparisons
- This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
- So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
- Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens a bit, but we’ll see. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
- The second plot is new and is attempting to track the progress normalized for how long each state has had the order. It shows the average of the ratio for each state of the new cases for any given day to the number of new cases on the day the order was enacted. If the orders are working, over time this line should come back down…but it isn’t there yet.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
